- Estimates are inferred about the actual impact the CO2 ‘s rising levels would inflict on climate change and on human survival eventually,
- Research sends down shivers down our spine by clearly indicating the severity of impacts and related risks that global warming is likely to churn out to us after a point of constant simmer,
- Climate change policy should be revised on war footing, on the basis of such irrefutable evidence,
When the industrial revolution sparked off, nearly 250 years ago, 278 parts per million used to be the quantity of CO2 in our planet’s atmosphere, but today it has risen to 414 parts per million, which can be attributed to incessant use of fossil fuels. Geologists alarm that if the rate continues to soar like this, CO2 ppm is likely to get doubled to what existed prior to onset of industrial revolution.
No doubt, this makes us raise our eye brows when we imagine the response from climate to such excessive presence of COs in the atmosphere.
Reviews of Geophysics provide a detailed account of earth’s inherent sensitivity towards climate and also touched upon the concern highlighted above. The research clarifies the degree of warmth, our planet will be deluged with, if the rising levels of Carbon dioxide is not put to under control.
Even though, it is still pre-mature to consider the numbers in their exactness but even so, expecting reduced warmth is turns out to be absurd. Conversely, we can easily rule out maximum values too. However, if we continue to sideline the issue of global warming, for long period, earth’s temperature would mount to alarming levels, leaving human survival on earth, in jeopardy.
On the issue, a collective study was conducted under the aegis of World Climate Research Program (WCRP)which also witnessed earnest assistance from eminent climate scientists too and they harped upon a conceptual aspect known as “equilibrium climate sensitivity” under which speculations were made about the increase in average temperature on our planet, just in case COs concentrations gets doubled.
Here, following evidences can be used to form perfected estimates:
- By making a comparison between climate temperatures of 1850s with the current ones, alongside the CO2 levels and other climate factors of the past and matching them with present era, we can easily calculate changes likely to take place in the long run.
- Likewise, by referring to records from last ice age zenith, that is of 20,000 years ago, when CO2 level used to be at reduced levels than these are now.
In the same way, we can also take into consideration, the warmer spells of past 4 million years, when COs levels were somewhat similar to what stands today. Certainly, on the basis of nature of gases held in air bubbles of ice cores tracing back to ancient period, we can easily fathom the warmth of climate and the quantity of CO2 trapped in the atmosphere in those days.
Such basically comprise of data collected through satellite, evidence sought from climate models, by analysing theory and by studying detailed process models which deal with physics of inter-relations and inherent discourse taking place within the given climate system.
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is hard to speculate in its exactness while the definitive calculation has indicated the values fluctuating between 1.5 o C to 4.5 0 C. Further, the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) emphasized such values as the “likely range” in its 5th Assessment Report. Further, going by the new study, this so-called “likely range” is said to be tapered to, somewhere between 2.3 o C to 4.5 o C but with fears that such a range may get shrunk further ahead.
Low Sensitivity Poses A High Threat To Human Survival:
Arguably, low sensitivity implies an even major risk to human survival and such an unpleasant condition also stymies the efforts put to achieve the targets of Paris Agreement, whereby vows were taken to limit global temperatures below 2 o C as existed during pre-industrial times and also to contain the process of warming to 1.5 o C. Now, this is a clear indication that CO2 emissions should be curbed with such a consistent approach that it becomes zero, if we humans are really serious about achieving the Paris Agreement set targets.
Alarmingly, studies reveal if CO2 content in the air gets twice to what existed during pre-industrial days and becomes static, then there are sufficient chances (say 18%) that the temperature will rise more than 4.5 o C than what was there in pre-industrial era, while 5% chances also suggest that temperature can rise to more than 5.7 o C. NO doubt, such outcome of credible studies undermine our efforts as insufficient and has no-nonsense fallout on climate change risk assessment.
Besides, almost all of the climate models, even those installed with prominent environment research groups, showcase a broad pool of climate sensitivities and such a scenario is largely attributed to climatic sensitivities being volatile and intangible input into models from research scientists, and that it is procured from the framework and elements, which climate models consist of in their simulated form and in computerized formats.
Now, when models are different representing regions distinctly, we get to know about the changes taking place in climate in such regions as well as about the extreme weather conditions prevailing alongside such diverse climate sensitivities, following this, assessments can easily be drawn in regard to their impact on earth. Not surprisingly, by looking at such different models, scientists also put efforts to unlock the possibility of high sensitivity
While going through the new study, a new aspect of climate models comes into the limelight, which is the climate sensitivity that needs to be considered through the lens of other evidence too.
However, scholars argue a long road ahead to be covered, before assessments are made about the reaction of global climate to any change in the amount of greenhouse gases, such progress lays down a solid foundation of credible clue, on which we can further manage the policy and our actions in regard to climate change.