February has turned out to be the warmest month since 1901. Clearly, Climate Change is fast growing its roots deeper, and scientists are cautioning about the redundancy of La Nina to deal with the intense heat that India is highly likely to see in the coming months.
To put it straight, IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) anticipates an early onset of intense sunny days in the months to come, while the spell of heatwaves would be lengthier too.
Discount this, we even had a dry winter this January and such factors drive scientists to send hot shocks among us as we look towards the approaching months.
Warm Winters Are Here To Stay And A New Normal:
Climate Change, as it resulted from human activities, ensures warm winters and the scenario has gained momentum globally. But then scientists glue their opinion to annual changing designs, which they fondly call “year-to-year variability.”
The factor above has a huge role to play here. Climate change news India.
Let’s know the opinion of Arpita Mondal, who is an associate Professor at the Centre for Climate Studies at IIT Bombay, “For example, updates from the IMD this year suggest that it was an unusually dry winter”.
He said, “Rain is a natural cooling process that helps bring temperatures down”.
His colleague at IIT Bombay, Dr Raghu Murtugudde, who is an earth system scientist and professor said, “I see a global wave of warm and cold temperature anomalies (deviations from expected patterns) during Dec-Feb that are related to the swings of jet Streams”.
Heatwave intensity and length are influenced by jet streams, which are powerful upper-atmosphere winds that move north and south.
Mondal later described, “Our study finds that a northward shift in these winds during pre-monsoon is directly linked with heatwave characters such as its duration and temperature”.
The observed temperature changes are also influenced by the cyclical nature of the El Nino and La Nina phases, which are fuelled by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
At this juncture, the media grabbed an insight from Vimal Mishra, who is Chair professor of Civil Engineering at IIT Gandhinagar, “So, under El Nino-like conditions, you will see warm springs or hot temperatures just after winter, whereas if La Nina prevails, you will find more number of cool or cold days.”
El Nino’s warm phase and La Nina’s cold phase are the two oscillations of the ENSO, which deals with temperature and pressure variations in the Pacific Ocean.
Usually, a cycle lasts two to seven years. Environment news updates in India.
Dear reader, this past week, WMO (World Meteorological Organization) stunned us by declaring “weak” La Nina which we found in December 2024, “is likely to be shortlived”.
Following ENSO–neutral circumstances that star in May 2024, the WMO had earlier forecast a 60% chance of La Nina developing between July and September 2024.
Global temperatures between March 2024 and February 2025 were 1.59°C higher than pre-industrial levels and 0.71°C higher than the 1990-2020 average, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
As for the temperatures of sea surfaces, they remain at an all-time high in multiple river basins. Environment news updates in India.
Climate Change News Right Here:
Murtugudde confirmed, “It’s not really a La Niña at all. It has some cold waters in the tropical Pacific (Ocean), but in the critical eastern Pacific, some warm anomalies have persisted. And this only emerged at the end of the year, as opposed to peaking during December-February.”
Headded that the surprising trends could be related to the ongoing record warming of 2023.
According to studies, El Nino events— of which half are considered extreme — are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as the climate warms.
One of the five strongest El Ninoes on record, the 2023-24 El Nino, has caused harsh weather and rising temperatures all around the world.
In the summer of 2024, India experienced 536 hot days, the most in 14 years. Environment news updates in India.
But then, IMD maintains that June was the warmest in the northwest since 1901.
Mr Mishra cautioned, “The most robust, important signature is that of climate change. Environment news updates in India.
Therefore, even under ENSO-neutral conditions — very much likely this year — we cannot ignore harsh heatwaves, given that we have already started with quite warm temperatures in March”.
The WMO predicted a 60% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions from March to May 2025 in its update this week.
Mr Mishra wound up the sessions saying, “Under climate change, an El Nino will cause a lot of problems for us, but La Nina may not be able to provide comfort to us”.
Well dear reader, please continue to click for an authentic and broader climate news coverage.
